Now here’s an interesting take on the LibDem ‘surge’ (if media coverage is to believed, we’re going to have to close the Thames Barrier for fear of Westminster being swamped by LibDems…but hey, what’s to fear?).
http://liberalconspiracy.org/2010/04/21/this-graph-shows-why-libdem-surge-hurts-tories-more-than-labour/
I particularly like it as it has lots of pretty coloured graphs that are not too dissimilar to the ribbons on a May Pole…if the May Pole was on it’s side…and May Poles remind me of my birthday, 1st May, which is always a good thing.
Anyway, it’s particularly relevant to Brighton Kemptown as it describes a Labour held seat with a slim majority over the Tories who have the constituency in their cross-hairs (with the LibDems skipping along somewhere behind).
I’ll précis it for those with a broken mouse-click finger:
LibDems surge would steal...no, that's not fair,...would gain more votes from the Conservatives than it would Labour…and then there’s lot’s of pretty graphs (as described in far too much detail above) taken from reputable sources like MORI and YouGov and St Bennetts Sixth Form College Political Science Field Study findings and all that jazz to back up the assertion.
Interesting, no?
One thing it says is that the LibDems winning over Tory supporters’ votes can’t be represented on a swingometer…but they clearly haven’t come across:
The Guardian’s ‘three-way’ graphical swingometer (although I did read somewhere that it wouldn’t represent a LibDem win under any conditions – I certainly can’t make it do that as it only allows a max of a 10% swing to any party…and the LibDems need 117% I think).
In fact most swingometers let you specify the gain for one party at the expense of the other two individually…so what are liberal conspiracy talking about? Nonsene probably, which undermines the entire premise…so probably best ignore it all and carry on regardless…as usual.
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