Grayling's gay gaffe - what impact on Kemptown Tory vote?

From the UK Polling Report website - Kemptown Forum

Gabriella Coscia
I see this seat [Brighton Kemptown] remaining Labour.Why ?
Large gay population which the tories will be able to blame their shadow Home Secretary for the loss of this potential gain for offending gay people.
Sometimes votes from certain sections of society and certain communities matter. Labour will hold 500 to 1000 majority

Andy J
The gay population isn’t large enough to have that kind of effect.

Jack Spratticus [that's me by the way]

Chris Grayling has certainly scuppered the gay & lesbian vote. Estimates put Brighton’s population at 20% gay & lesbian…Kemptown’s probably more…let’s say 28% to make the maths easier (although I think that’s an over estimation). To lose those that may have voted Tory…let’s say 25% of that 28% would represent a 7% swing away from Tory. Would that be made up by the rest of Kemptown constituency’s new found Tory support to get them the seat? Dunno.

Bear in mind that the Kemptown constituency spreads a long way from Kemptown into the Moulsecombe, Saltdean, Woodingdean, Peacehaven hinterland. Not that I subscribe to his point of view/comments but they may have gained the Tory party support elsewhere in the small minded, shaved head end of constituency…who knows?

Either way, Grayling made a pre-election gaff in a very old-school Tory way.
==========================================