Sorry, been a bit quiet on here lately. Real life getting in the way of virtual politics. Obviously lots going on nationally as I'm sure you're aware. Locally within Kemptown...well the Paddy Power Brighton Kemptown election odds have changed a little perhaps reflecting the national scene:
Conservatives = 1/7 (lengthened a fraction from 1/8 although still odds on favourites)
Labour = 4/1 (unchanged)
LibDems = 40/1 (shortened from 66/1...but hardly turned on their head!)
Greens = 50/1 (again shortned a touch from 66/1 but still the outsiders)
Read it as you will.
Thursday 29 April 2010
Saturday 24 April 2010
Kemtpown election odds odds odds
With all the kerfuffle about skewed and politcally biased polls, perhaps the best place to get a representative view of the likely outcome in Kemptown...is the bookies...the people who have a financial interest in getting it right!
Paddy Power odds remain unchanged for Brighton Kemptown election results:
Conservative = 1/8
Labour = 4/1
LibDem = 66/1
Green = 66/1
According to the Electoral Calculus website (posh name for a website probably run by a second year politics student at Lancaster University with a Casio MS-8TV calculator) the odds according to the polls are:
Conservative = 2/1
Labour = 3/1
LibDem = 8/1
Other =166/1
So, as far as I understand gambling, the LibDems represent good value if you fancy a bet...not that I'm saying they're going to win, they're just undervalued by a factor of eight by the bookies.
Paddy Power odds remain unchanged for Brighton Kemptown election results:
Conservative = 1/8
Labour = 4/1
LibDem = 66/1
Green = 66/1
According to the Electoral Calculus website (posh name for a website probably run by a second year politics student at Lancaster University with a Casio MS-8TV calculator) the odds according to the polls are:
Conservative = 2/1
Labour = 3/1
LibDem = 8/1
Other =166/1
So, as far as I understand gambling, the LibDems represent good value if you fancy a bet...not that I'm saying they're going to win, they're just undervalued by a factor of eight by the bookies.
Campaign 'activity' map - east Kemptown
Inspired by The Argus' Brighton Pavilion Canvassing Map, I have decided to do my own for east Kemptown (a non-official area in the east of...well...Kemptown that I have made up myself).
Unfortunately due to the lack of 'activity' other than Dave Hill (TUSC) on the back of a transit blasting out his political song through a mega phone, I have had to include the leaflets I have received at home.
To summarise:
Labour = some leaflets
Greens = 1 leaflet
Conservatives = 1 leaflet
TUSC = megaphone broadcast on Marine Parade
I think the map is editable by the public so feel free to add to it with an appropriate coloured flag.
View Political 'activity' in east Kemptwon in a larger map
Unfortunately due to the lack of 'activity' other than Dave Hill (TUSC) on the back of a transit blasting out his political song through a mega phone, I have had to include the leaflets I have received at home.
To summarise:
Labour = some leaflets
Greens = 1 leaflet
Conservatives = 1 leaflet
TUSC = megaphone broadcast on Marine Parade
I think the map is editable by the public so feel free to add to it with an appropriate coloured flag.
View Political 'activity' in east Kemptwon in a larger map
UKIP's Webber gaffe - the story behind the story
It's an election, the poltical reporting reaches fever pitch as newspapers generate column feet of coverage and candidates fight tooth and nail for their lark's song to rise above the twittering of starlings.
So we can always expect some great gaffes by our Westminster wannabes. Our own Brighton Kemptown UKIP candidate James Chamberlain-Webber managed to put his foot in it this week by comparing our train service to travelling on Nazi 'cattle trucks' to concentration camps. Hmmm.
But things are not always as they appear at face value of course. Here's a potential scenario that could have led to Webber's 'blunder' - the story behind the story:
[Wednesday night and the phone rings in the Chamberlain-Webber household.]
Dr Chamberlain-Webber: Hello?
Nigel Farage (UKIP Leader): Ah, Webber...Nigel Farage here. Look, I'm very disappointed by the lack of momentum in your campaign so far. I want you to up the ante and try and knock coverage of tomorrow's leaders' debate off the front pages.
DR C-W: Oh, OK. What do you have in mind?
NF: Well, something controversial, something offensive, something that really sheds some light on who we are and sets your camapign alight.
Dr C-W: Oh, right. What about something crass and ill-thought-out about the gay community...I am standing in Brighton Kemptown after all?
NF: No, no, no, the Conservatives have got there first...Grayling with the B&B fiasco and now Julian Lewis has stolen our thunder with his comment about how being young and gay is as dangerous as going to war. Pity, as that would have been perfect.
Dr C-W: I could say that it's our policy to cosy up to the extreme right wing in Europe.
NF: Nope. Conservatives again. Anway...we ARE the extreme right wing in Europe!
Dr C-W: What about if I get confused and say "Here I am in Arundel & South Downs" when I'm actually in Brighton Kemptown?
NF: Old hat! Liam Fox in Edinburgh South.
Dr C-W: I could get on Twitter and say that Simon Burgess is a tw*t and Juliet Williams is a f*cking idiot.
NF: Slagging off candidates has already been done by Labour - Stuart MacLennan in Moray. Hang on just a minute...I think I've got it!!!
[Obviously the above is completely ficticious and in no way explains why Webber said what he said.]
So we can always expect some great gaffes by our Westminster wannabes. Our own Brighton Kemptown UKIP candidate James Chamberlain-Webber managed to put his foot in it this week by comparing our train service to travelling on Nazi 'cattle trucks' to concentration camps. Hmmm.
Dr James Chamberlain-Webber (UKIP PPC for Brighton Kemptown)
But things are not always as they appear at face value of course. Here's a potential scenario that could have led to Webber's 'blunder' - the story behind the story:
[Wednesday night and the phone rings in the Chamberlain-Webber household.]
Dr Chamberlain-Webber: Hello?
Nigel Farage (UKIP Leader): Ah, Webber...Nigel Farage here. Look, I'm very disappointed by the lack of momentum in your campaign so far. I want you to up the ante and try and knock coverage of tomorrow's leaders' debate off the front pages.
DR C-W: Oh, OK. What do you have in mind?
NF: Well, something controversial, something offensive, something that really sheds some light on who we are and sets your camapign alight.
Dr C-W: Oh, right. What about something crass and ill-thought-out about the gay community...I am standing in Brighton Kemptown after all?
NF: No, no, no, the Conservatives have got there first...Grayling with the B&B fiasco and now Julian Lewis has stolen our thunder with his comment about how being young and gay is as dangerous as going to war. Pity, as that would have been perfect.
Dr C-W: I could say that it's our policy to cosy up to the extreme right wing in Europe.
NF: Nope. Conservatives again. Anway...we ARE the extreme right wing in Europe!
Dr C-W: What about if I get confused and say "Here I am in Arundel & South Downs" when I'm actually in Brighton Kemptown?
NF: Old hat! Liam Fox in Edinburgh South.
Dr C-W: I could get on Twitter and say that Simon Burgess is a tw*t and Juliet Williams is a f*cking idiot.
NF: Slagging off candidates has already been done by Labour - Stuart MacLennan in Moray. Hang on just a minute...I think I've got it!!!
[Obviously the above is completely ficticious and in no way explains why Webber said what he said.]
Friday 23 April 2010
E-poking Simon Kirby with an e-stick
After the high of my letter from Simon Burgess (Lab), I felt the inevitable low - the feeling I had been short-changed a bit by Simon Kirby (Con) and his 'HELLO' email. It wasn't really cutting it for me.
So I decided to give him an e-poke with an e-stick to try and get hold of some of his campaign literature.
===============================
Thanks Simon
I forgot to tell you where I live - [Address withheld to prevent being mobbed by 'The Whale' fans]
I appreciate you're very busy but can you let me know when you/your team plan to drop a campaign leaflet off or perhaps you could pop something in the post explaining your policies with regards the Brighton Kemptown constituency.
All the best - Mr Spratticus
So I decided to give him an e-poke with an e-stick to try and get hold of some of his campaign literature.
===============================
Thanks Simon
I forgot to tell you where I live - [Address withheld to prevent being mobbed by 'The Whale' fans]
I appreciate you're very busy but can you let me know when you/your team plan to drop a campaign leaflet off or perhaps you could pop something in the post explaining your policies with regards the Brighton Kemptown constituency.
All the best - Mr Spratticus
On 21 April 2010 16:58, Kemptown Conservatives <brighton@tory.org> wrote:
Dear Mr Spratticus
Thanks for getting in touch. We have been very busy delivering across the constituency and if we have missed you I must apologise. I will make sure that we do not miss you again. Thank you and Kind Regards
Simon KirbyConservative Parliamentary CandidateBrighton Kemptown
Simon Burgess - he can read my thoughts...and then reply!
Not only has Simon Burgess (Lab) out-leafleted our household by a scale of 422:1 (the 'one' was Ben Duncan - Green Party) but I have just had a personal letter from him...with my name spelt correctly an' everythin'.
I returned one of his flyers recently that had a survey on the back asking what my biggest concerns and issues were both locally and nationally. I said climate change (more global than local) and cycling (more national & local than global...although global promotion wouldn't hurt). I know, there are other things to worry about but I thought those a good starting point. The letter I have just received (OK, not technically signed by him, it's an image of his signature, but hey) thanks me for returning the survey and then highlights his stance on environmental issues and cycling.
OK, I'm not so naive as to think that he's dictating this letter to his PA as he's gripping and grinning constituents and sharing a Vimto with Eddie Izzard, I'm sure it's his back room staff, but I'm still impressed.
I'm afraid it rather eclipses Juliet Williams' (LibDem) email (written by Paul Chandler) and Simon Kirby's (Con) (now almost famous) 'HELLO' email.
Right, I'm just going to check outside to see if Simon Burgess is loitering in the street in a trilby hat and false beard taking pictures of our house.
I returned one of his flyers recently that had a survey on the back asking what my biggest concerns and issues were both locally and nationally. I said climate change (more global than local) and cycling (more national & local than global...although global promotion wouldn't hurt). I know, there are other things to worry about but I thought those a good starting point. The letter I have just received (OK, not technically signed by him, it's an image of his signature, but hey) thanks me for returning the survey and then highlights his stance on environmental issues and cycling.
OK, I'm not so naive as to think that he's dictating this letter to his PA as he's gripping and grinning constituents and sharing a Vimto with Eddie Izzard, I'm sure it's his back room staff, but I'm still impressed.
I'm afraid it rather eclipses Juliet Williams' (LibDem) email (written by Paul Chandler) and Simon Kirby's (Con) (now almost famous) 'HELLO' email.
Right, I'm just going to check outside to see if Simon Burgess is loitering in the street in a trilby hat and false beard taking pictures of our house.
The 'funny' bits of the leaders' debate
[...to counter the previous far too serious post]
OK funny might be 'pushing the envelope' as our US cousins (who work in a stationery factory) might say. But at least these are the bits that made me smile:
The cut-away to yawning man:
Gordy wittering on about something and the camera cuts to the audience (for reaction?) and lands on a man stifling a giant yawn. Sky coverage - who'd a thought it, tut tut!
The 'Dear Liza' immigration debate :
Gordon to Nick: You'd offer an amnesty to 900,000 illegal immigrants, dear Liza dear Liza
Nick to Gordon: You have to be realistically. What would you do dear Henry dear Henry?
Gordon to Nick: I'd deport them dear Liza dear Liza
Nick to Gordon: You can't deport 900,000 people - you don't know where they live, dear Henry dear Henry!
(Gordon to self in mumble: Perhaps I can find them on 192.com or Linked-In or something?)
The great neanderthal sex diagnosis:
Gordon to audience member: "Woman. You are one of them!"
Unfortunate choice of words prize:
1st - Afghanistan: Dave was 'blown away' by a soldier's comments.
2nd - Climate change: Gordon has hardly used a plane during this campaign. (Errr...nor has the entire nation!)
Pot calling deep space black:
Gordon to Nick: Get real!
[From the most unreal, wooden, empathetically devoid character in politics since John Major.]
OK funny might be 'pushing the envelope' as our US cousins (who work in a stationery factory) might say. But at least these are the bits that made me smile:
The cut-away to yawning man:
Gordy wittering on about something and the camera cuts to the audience (for reaction?) and lands on a man stifling a giant yawn. Sky coverage - who'd a thought it, tut tut!
The 'Dear Liza' immigration debate :
Gordon to Nick: You'd offer an amnesty to 900,000 illegal immigrants, dear Liza dear Liza
Nick to Gordon: You have to be realistically. What would you do dear Henry dear Henry?
Gordon to Nick: I'd deport them dear Liza dear Liza
Nick to Gordon: You can't deport 900,000 people - you don't know where they live, dear Henry dear Henry!
(Gordon to self in mumble: Perhaps I can find them on 192.com or Linked-In or something?)
The great neanderthal sex diagnosis:
Gordon to audience member: "Woman. You are one of them!"
Unfortunate choice of words prize:
1st - Afghanistan: Dave was 'blown away' by a soldier's comments.
2nd - Climate change: Gordon has hardly used a plane during this campaign. (Errr...nor has the entire nation!)
Pot calling deep space black:
Gordon to Nick: Get real!
[From the most unreal, wooden, empathetically devoid character in politics since John Major.]
Leaders' debate and the impact on Brighton Kemptown
So, what's the impact of the leaders' debates on the political landscape of Brighton Kemptown (BK)? Well, as a marginal constituency, seemingly quite a lot. For those BK constituents that are politically active and aware of local political nuances (yes that's you! After all, you're reading the virtual Magnum Opus on Brighton Kemptown politics) it is probably just entertainment but won't effect your voting choice.
To those vast majority of BK constituents, particularly those in the eastern hinterlands who watched the latest debate, slippered feet up, gin & tonic in hand whilst munching through a box of dates, it may well have a big impact. They voted Labour in '97 for a change, '01 because things were fine and maybe switched to Tory in '05 or were thinking about switching to Tory in this election...after all, what is the alternative?
Well, Nick Clegg held his own last night...OK, maybe not as dramatic as last week's debate, but he's up there on a level platform with the Gordy & Dave double act and has proven himslef to be a viable alternative.
As I have previously covered on this blog in fantastically academically rigourous detail (hmmm?), a swing to the LibDems in BK strips more potential Conservative votes than it does Labour.
So, on that premise, the higher the LibDems' stock soars, the more Conservative support deflates...and the more chance there is of Labour retaining the seat. It may not be a big enough groundswell to prevent a Tory victory in BK, but currently on Paddy Power (no unsavoury vested interest I hasten to add), you can get odds of 4/1 on a Labour victory in BK. Even if it's not worthy of your vote, it might be worth a punt.
To those vast majority of BK constituents, particularly those in the eastern hinterlands who watched the latest debate, slippered feet up, gin & tonic in hand whilst munching through a box of dates, it may well have a big impact. They voted Labour in '97 for a change, '01 because things were fine and maybe switched to Tory in '05 or were thinking about switching to Tory in this election...after all, what is the alternative?
Well, Nick Clegg held his own last night...OK, maybe not as dramatic as last week's debate, but he's up there on a level platform with the Gordy & Dave double act and has proven himslef to be a viable alternative.
As I have previously covered on this blog in fantastically academically rigourous detail (hmmm?), a swing to the LibDems in BK strips more potential Conservative votes than it does Labour.
So, on that premise, the higher the LibDems' stock soars, the more Conservative support deflates...and the more chance there is of Labour retaining the seat. It may not be a big enough groundswell to prevent a Tory victory in BK, but currently on Paddy Power (no unsavoury vested interest I hasten to add), you can get odds of 4/1 on a Labour victory in BK. Even if it's not worthy of your vote, it might be worth a punt.
Thursday 22 April 2010
To those outside and inside the tent
In a bid to get those inside the tent looking out (dealing with global or European issues) and those outside the tent looking in (dealing with local issues), I am going to pose the following questions to a couple of candidates:
To Dave Hill (Trade Unionist & Socialist Coalition):
Does he believe that the credibility of European macroeconomic coordination depends more on how the Stability and Growth Pact is explained than on how it is reformed.
To Simon Kirby (Conservative):
What does he propose to do about our neighbours' cat crapping in our garden?
To Dave Hill (Trade Unionist & Socialist Coalition):
Does he believe that the credibility of European macroeconomic coordination depends more on how the Stability and Growth Pact is explained than on how it is reformed.
To Simon Kirby (Conservative):
What does he propose to do about our neighbours' cat crapping in our garden?
Kemptown candidate movements - of the campaigning kind
So what have the Kemptown candidates been up to lately? Here’s a round up from the Web and their blogsites:
Simon Burgess (Labour & Co-op) – ran the marathon (and finished 7286th in 6hrs 48mins 01secs); schmoozed with comic Eddie Izzard (I wouldn’t mind that job), endured a visit from John Prescott (he can keep that one though); attended the Brighton Question Time climate change debate run by One Vote 2010.
James Chamberlain-Webber (UKIP) – also attended the Brighton Question Time climate change debate where he disagreed with all the other parliamentary candidates on climate change being man-made and the need to curb Gatwick’s proposed runway expansion. (That’s all I could find out about James and his plodding along the campaign trail.)
Ben Duncan (Green) – also ran the Brighton Marathon (and finished 4075th in 4hrs 43mins 59secs); attended the Brighton Question Time climate debate; planted wild flowers in the green clean up around Eastern Road; documented his every action and thought on Twitter here.
Dave Hill (Trade Unionist & Socialist Coalition) – gave an interview to the Argus on why he’s standing as a candidate (all candidates have been invited to do so and I think it’s being published today); drove around Kemptown with a loud speaker speaking loudly on the back of a transit (I think it was politically focused rather than calling for rag & bone).
Simon Kirby (Conservative) – did not attend the Brighton Question Time climate debate, blogged about Conservative Party national policy/manifesto; sent me an email with the subject line HELLO.
Martin Taylor (Official Monster Raving Loony Party) – not sure what he’s been up to; he has probably been raving about like a loony and acting as a monster…in an official capacity.
Juliet Williams (LibDem) – she has been very busy; got Paul Chandler (Election Agent) to send me an email about their campaign literature; she got Mark Collins (LibDem Brighton & Hove Membership Development Secretary) to attend the Brighton Question Time climate change debate which begs the question…is she actually in the British Virgin Isles, margarita in-hand?
And that my dears, is all that I have been able to find out. More as it happens, as ever.
Simon Burgess (Labour & Co-op) – ran the marathon (and finished 7286th in 6hrs 48mins 01secs); schmoozed with comic Eddie Izzard (I wouldn’t mind that job), endured a visit from John Prescott (he can keep that one though); attended the Brighton Question Time climate change debate run by One Vote 2010.
James Chamberlain-Webber (UKIP) – also attended the Brighton Question Time climate change debate where he disagreed with all the other parliamentary candidates on climate change being man-made and the need to curb Gatwick’s proposed runway expansion. (That’s all I could find out about James and his plodding along the campaign trail.)
Ben Duncan (Green) – also ran the Brighton Marathon (and finished 4075th in 4hrs 43mins 59secs); attended the Brighton Question Time climate debate; planted wild flowers in the green clean up around Eastern Road; documented his every action and thought on Twitter here.
Dave Hill (Trade Unionist & Socialist Coalition) – gave an interview to the Argus on why he’s standing as a candidate (all candidates have been invited to do so and I think it’s being published today); drove around Kemptown with a loud speaker speaking loudly on the back of a transit (I think it was politically focused rather than calling for rag & bone).
Simon Kirby (Conservative) – did not attend the Brighton Question Time climate debate, blogged about Conservative Party national policy/manifesto; sent me an email with the subject line HELLO.
Martin Taylor (Official Monster Raving Loony Party) – not sure what he’s been up to; he has probably been raving about like a loony and acting as a monster…in an official capacity.
Juliet Williams (LibDem) – she has been very busy; got Paul Chandler (Election Agent) to send me an email about their campaign literature; she got Mark Collins (LibDem Brighton & Hove Membership Development Secretary) to attend the Brighton Question Time climate change debate which begs the question…is she actually in the British Virgin Isles, margarita in-hand?
And that my dears, is all that I have been able to find out. More as it happens, as ever.
Orange Peko Prezza in Kemptown
Following up on the battle of Independent Newspapers versus News Corps, my attention turns to that other bastion of British journalism and pillar of intellectual rigour – The Kemptown Rag. Top of their home page at the moment is a wee story on John Prescott stopping by Kemptown on the ‘battle bus’, meeting Kemptown Labour candidate Simon Burgess and having tea in Tea Cosy.
Hope Simon Burgess had eaten before hand as he wouldn’t have got a sniff of the scones and Victoria sponge with Prezza for company.
Don’t know when this cosy tea party took place as there’s no date on the piece. Must have been when I was out of town as I’m sure I’d have heard the lip smacking and juddering jowls otherwise.
[And according to some tweet or other I read, and whose location I've long since forgotten, the Tea Cosy also recieved a request from the Conservative Party HQ for David Cameron to pay a visit . What does this underwhelming tea shop have that the political movers and shakers want a slice of (apart from the obvious lemon drizzle cake)? Don't know whether it happened - probably not judging by the Labour Party supporting picture in the window.]
Hope Simon Burgess had eaten before hand as he wouldn’t have got a sniff of the scones and Victoria sponge with Prezza for company.
Don’t know when this cosy tea party took place as there’s no date on the piece. Must have been when I was out of town as I’m sure I’d have heard the lip smacking and juddering jowls otherwise.
[And according to some tweet or other I read, and whose location I've long since forgotten, the Tea Cosy also recieved a request from the Conservative Party HQ for David Cameron to pay a visit . What does this underwhelming tea shop have that the political movers and shakers want a slice of (apart from the obvious lemon drizzle cake)? Don't know whether it happened - probably not judging by the Labour Party supporting picture in the window.]
A Kemptown vote actually equates to 0.623 votes
That's the bad news. The good news is it's more than the national average 'voter power', which is 0.253!
Confused? Me too. But according to Voter Power, the 'worth' of your vote depends on the constituency majority held by the encumbent political party.
So let's say in Orpington, the Conservative's safest seat, your vote, regardless of who you vote for isn't really going to affect the result. Likewise in Knowsley, Labour's safest seat, you are a tiny voice within a uniform sea of voters
The good news for us Kemptownians is that our seat is a 'marginal' - held by Labour with a slim majority over the Conservatives (going on last election results). This means our votes count more than normal - or put another way - have more power.
I guess the maximum voter power is 1.0, where all parties previously have had an exact share of the votes. Or perhaps you have to be in a constituency of population 1 - you? As I've said before, maths has never been my strong suit.
What does this mean? Get out and vote! It counts more in Kemptown than in many other parts of the country!
Confused? Me too. But according to Voter Power, the 'worth' of your vote depends on the constituency majority held by the encumbent political party.
So let's say in Orpington, the Conservative's safest seat, your vote, regardless of who you vote for isn't really going to affect the result. Likewise in Knowsley, Labour's safest seat, you are a tiny voice within a uniform sea of voters
The good news for us Kemptownians is that our seat is a 'marginal' - held by Labour with a slim majority over the Conservatives (going on last election results). This means our votes count more than normal - or put another way - have more power.
I guess the maximum voter power is 1.0, where all parties previously have had an exact share of the votes. Or perhaps you have to be in a constituency of population 1 - you? As I've said before, maths has never been my strong suit.
What does this mean? Get out and vote! It counts more in Kemptown than in many other parts of the country!
James Murdoch & Rebekah Wade storm Independent
OK, nothing to do with Kemptown politics per se (just the national scene and the media bias). Twitter was all fluttery about Kevin Maguire's tweet that James Murdoch & Rebekah Wade (now Brooks) from News Corps marched into the Independent's offices unannounced and unplanned to have a 'meeting' directly with editor Simon Kelner about the Indy's ad campaign and freebie election special papers that are being handed out today (...got my copy at Brighton station). No doubt the Indy's dig at the media's partisan support of the parties was discussed.
Actually, the dig was an undisguised an unabashed swipe at News Corp's support for the Conservatives.
This seems to have been confirmed just now on Today (Radio 4) by Sarah Montague (although she might just be rehashing the original Tweet and Guardian Media Monkey's post...don't know).
All quite exciting - politicians knocking lumps out of each other and now newspaper editors/owners. Bring it on!
[Story gains a bit more credence from The Guardian's Election Blog...although they have been known to get things wrong...I think I've said that before.]
Actually, the dig was an undisguised an unabashed swipe at News Corp's support for the Conservatives.
This seems to have been confirmed just now on Today (Radio 4) by Sarah Montague (although she might just be rehashing the original Tweet and Guardian Media Monkey's post...don't know).
All quite exciting - politicians knocking lumps out of each other and now newspaper editors/owners. Bring it on!
[Story gains a bit more credence from The Guardian's Election Blog...although they have been known to get things wrong...I think I've said that before.]
Wednesday 21 April 2010
Big Kemptown election news!
Huge news! Massive and exciting. I could actually pee.
I have received emails from Simon Kirby (Conservative candidate), Juliet Williams (Liberal Democrat candidate) and got a flyer through the post from Ben Duncan (Green Party candidate). The joy of it all.
Simon Kirby (Con) titled his email: 'HELLO', which I thought pretty friendly. He said he's been very busy, which I can understand, and he apologised for missing me (I think he meant in a oversight rather than pining sort of way) and said that it won't happen again. Great stuff.
Next Juliet Williams (LibDem). Actually it came from a chap called Paul Chandler (Election Agent for JW) who explained that she was too busy to write personally (...unlike Simon Kirby...those that read the runes amongst you could take that as a sign that Simon's got some spare time on his hands so he's either swotted up on all his pre-exam revision or he's given up). I was a bit disappointed. And no big cheery capitalised 'HELLO' either. Anyway, it went on, Juliet's been bsuy getting about the 43,000 households (that seems a little high), should receive literature by post shortly and he would send it personally but I didn't supply my address (or my street). Ahhh. That's true. I sent the same email to Simon Kirby, so how come he said he wouldn't miss me again...when he doesn't know where I live? Perhaps he has the Deluxe version of GoogleMaps or something...or was just fobbing me off.
Paul's personal remarks and clear logic made up for the lack of personal response from Juliet Williams herself (and the lack of the big happy 'HELLO').
And so the leaflet from Ben Duncan (Green Party). Haven't had a chance to pore over it yet but it's got a cracking bar graph on the back proclaiming that the Green Party are ahead across the city at 31.4% with Conservatives second on 22.1% then Labour 14.5%, UKIP 12.1% and lastly LibDems 10.2%. Gosh,for a minute I thought it was the latest Brighton-centric IPSOS-MORI poll results...but no. It was the city-wide (so I guess three constituencies) European election results June 2009.
Shucks - you had me there Ben. I shall digest the rest as I digest some Marmite on toast and a cup of tea.
What a day though. What a day!
[This post comes to you from James Holden - Blog Agent for Spratticus as he's currently too busy to do his own posts.]
I have received emails from Simon Kirby (Conservative candidate), Juliet Williams (Liberal Democrat candidate) and got a flyer through the post from Ben Duncan (Green Party candidate). The joy of it all.
Simon Kirby (Con) titled his email: 'HELLO', which I thought pretty friendly. He said he's been very busy, which I can understand, and he apologised for missing me (I think he meant in a oversight rather than pining sort of way) and said that it won't happen again. Great stuff.
Next Juliet Williams (LibDem). Actually it came from a chap called Paul Chandler (Election Agent for JW) who explained that she was too busy to write personally (...unlike Simon Kirby...those that read the runes amongst you could take that as a sign that Simon's got some spare time on his hands so he's either swotted up on all his pre-exam revision or he's given up). I was a bit disappointed. And no big cheery capitalised 'HELLO' either. Anyway, it went on, Juliet's been bsuy getting about the 43,000 households (that seems a little high), should receive literature by post shortly and he would send it personally but I didn't supply my address (or my street). Ahhh. That's true. I sent the same email to Simon Kirby, so how come he said he wouldn't miss me again...when he doesn't know where I live? Perhaps he has the Deluxe version of GoogleMaps or something...or was just fobbing me off.
Paul's personal remarks and clear logic made up for the lack of personal response from Juliet Williams herself (and the lack of the big happy 'HELLO').
And so the leaflet from Ben Duncan (Green Party). Haven't had a chance to pore over it yet but it's got a cracking bar graph on the back proclaiming that the Green Party are ahead across the city at 31.4% with Conservatives second on 22.1% then Labour 14.5%, UKIP 12.1% and lastly LibDems 10.2%. Gosh,for a minute I thought it was the latest Brighton-centric IPSOS-MORI poll results...but no. It was the city-wide (so I guess three constituencies) European election results June 2009.
Shucks - you had me there Ben. I shall digest the rest as I digest some Marmite on toast and a cup of tea.
What a day though. What a day!
[This post comes to you from James Holden - Blog Agent for Spratticus as he's currently too busy to do his own posts.]
Swing-tastic
OK, while we’re on the subject of big swinging, here’s a spiffy review of the election 2010 swingometers for all you swingometer addicts out there. Swingilliant!
http://www.visualisingdata.com/index.php/2010/04/the-return-of-the-swingometer/
http://www.visualisingdata.com/index.php/2010/04/the-return-of-the-swingometer/
Swing-a-nomics
I made a bit of a flippant comment in my last post about the share of vote the LibDems would need to win the election outright. I was wondering hypothetically (that is I was wondering on a hypothetical subject…not hypothetically wondering) what swing the LibDems would need to get a majority in a hung parliament and further to that – an outright win. It seems it’s not an easily answered question.
According to Sir Robert Worcester, Visiting Professor of Government at LSE (most distinguished…and he looks it too) they’d need a uniform swing of 7% to be the majority party on c.250 seats and just over 8% to reach the magic 326 seats to form a government.
This is a little odd as the Guardian swingometer doesn’t give them as winning the election at a 10% uniform swing. Perhaps the Guardian has got it wrong – it wouldn’t be the first time (I’ve said that before I think).
Also this analysis by international affairs columnist Renard Sexton on FiveThirtyEight.com seems to suggest the LibDems need a much bigger swing. Their top 42 target seats require a 0.35-9.9% swing. That means the further 150 seats they’d need to be the most ‘seated’ party in parliament need more than a 10% swing (let alone the further 75 seats to win the election).
Now, I’m no mathematician…but the figures seem to suggest that the LibDems would need a much greater swing than 8% to take power.
My head hurts and I think I'm going for a lie down.
Any ‘swingometicians’ out there? (And I’m not talking about experts in swapping partners!)
According to Sir Robert Worcester, Visiting Professor of Government at LSE (most distinguished…and he looks it too) they’d need a uniform swing of 7% to be the majority party on c.250 seats and just over 8% to reach the magic 326 seats to form a government.
This is a little odd as the Guardian swingometer doesn’t give them as winning the election at a 10% uniform swing. Perhaps the Guardian has got it wrong – it wouldn’t be the first time (I’ve said that before I think).
Also this analysis by international affairs columnist Renard Sexton on FiveThirtyEight.com seems to suggest the LibDems need a much bigger swing. Their top 42 target seats require a 0.35-9.9% swing. That means the further 150 seats they’d need to be the most ‘seated’ party in parliament need more than a 10% swing (let alone the further 75 seats to win the election).
Now, I’m no mathematician…but the figures seem to suggest that the LibDems would need a much greater swing than 8% to take power.
My head hurts and I think I'm going for a lie down.
Any ‘swingometicians’ out there? (And I’m not talking about experts in swapping partners!)
LibDem surf's up as blue tide recedes
Now here’s an interesting take on the LibDem ‘surge’ (if media coverage is to believed, we’re going to have to close the Thames Barrier for fear of Westminster being swamped by LibDems…but hey, what’s to fear?).
http://liberalconspiracy.org/2010/04/21/this-graph-shows-why-libdem-surge-hurts-tories-more-than-labour/
I particularly like it as it has lots of pretty coloured graphs that are not too dissimilar to the ribbons on a May Pole…if the May Pole was on it’s side…and May Poles remind me of my birthday, 1st May, which is always a good thing.
Anyway, it’s particularly relevant to Brighton Kemptown as it describes a Labour held seat with a slim majority over the Tories who have the constituency in their cross-hairs (with the LibDems skipping along somewhere behind).
I’ll précis it for those with a broken mouse-click finger:
LibDems surge would steal...no, that's not fair,...would gain more votes from the Conservatives than it would Labour…and then there’s lot’s of pretty graphs (as described in far too much detail above) taken from reputable sources like MORI and YouGov and St Bennetts Sixth Form College Political Science Field Study findings and all that jazz to back up the assertion.
Interesting, no?
One thing it says is that the LibDems winning over Tory supporters’ votes can’t be represented on a swingometer…but they clearly haven’t come across:
The Guardian’s ‘three-way’ graphical swingometer (although I did read somewhere that it wouldn’t represent a LibDem win under any conditions – I certainly can’t make it do that as it only allows a max of a 10% swing to any party…and the LibDems need 117% I think).
In fact most swingometers let you specify the gain for one party at the expense of the other two individually…so what are liberal conspiracy talking about? Nonsene probably, which undermines the entire premise…so probably best ignore it all and carry on regardless…as usual.
http://liberalconspiracy.org/2010/04/21/this-graph-shows-why-libdem-surge-hurts-tories-more-than-labour/
I particularly like it as it has lots of pretty coloured graphs that are not too dissimilar to the ribbons on a May Pole…if the May Pole was on it’s side…and May Poles remind me of my birthday, 1st May, which is always a good thing.
Anyway, it’s particularly relevant to Brighton Kemptown as it describes a Labour held seat with a slim majority over the Tories who have the constituency in their cross-hairs (with the LibDems skipping along somewhere behind).
I’ll précis it for those with a broken mouse-click finger:
LibDems surge would steal...no, that's not fair,...would gain more votes from the Conservatives than it would Labour…and then there’s lot’s of pretty graphs (as described in far too much detail above) taken from reputable sources like MORI and YouGov and St Bennetts Sixth Form College Political Science Field Study findings and all that jazz to back up the assertion.
Interesting, no?
One thing it says is that the LibDems winning over Tory supporters’ votes can’t be represented on a swingometer…but they clearly haven’t come across:
The Guardian’s ‘three-way’ graphical swingometer (although I did read somewhere that it wouldn’t represent a LibDem win under any conditions – I certainly can’t make it do that as it only allows a max of a 10% swing to any party…and the LibDems need 117% I think).
In fact most swingometers let you specify the gain for one party at the expense of the other two individually…so what are liberal conspiracy talking about? Nonsene probably, which undermines the entire premise…so probably best ignore it all and carry on regardless…as usual.
Volcanoes, zombies and the political link
Perhaps they are related?:
Recent Twitter from Ben Duncan (Green Party candidate)
Overheard on #Brighton bus re #ashcloud: 'I Didn't think Armageddon would start like this - I thought there'd be zombies n stuff'
http://twitter.com/KemptownBen/statuses/12565832411
AND
Soraya Anne Kara standing in Brighton Pavilion for the Citizens for Undead Rights and Equality, or CURE.
Campaign slogans:
“Zombies, like students, are people too. Let’s fight for their right to politically party.”
“I am not a zombie, but one day I might be. Let’s find a cure.”
Does Ms Kara know something we don't and the eruption of the Icelandic volcano marks the start of Armageddon. At the very least it represents the end of the world for some people's holiday plans.
Recent Twitter from Ben Duncan (Green Party candidate)
Overheard on #Brighton bus re #ashcloud: 'I Didn't think Armageddon would start like this - I thought there'd be zombies n stuff'
http://twitter.com/KemptownBen/statuses/12565832411
AND
Soraya Anne Kara standing in Brighton Pavilion for the Citizens for Undead Rights and Equality, or CURE.
Campaign slogans:
“Zombies, like students, are people too. Let’s fight for their right to politically party.”
“I am not a zombie, but one day I might be. Let’s find a cure.”
Does Ms Kara know something we don't and the eruption of the Icelandic volcano marks the start of Armageddon. At the very least it represents the end of the world for some people's holiday plans.
Politics Al Fresco style
OK, not technically Kemptown related and I know it’s a little old news, but just thought I’d remark on the Gordy & Dave’s recent (and separate) visits to Brighton. Obviously the sunshine on the south coast, the recent air traffic ban and the dour economy driving the ‘staycation’ were the main reasons for a visit to Brighton. Or maybe it was a spot of political schmoozing and palm pressing at Brighton & Hove Sixth Form College (The Gordonator Apr 16) and Varndean College (Monsieur Cameroon Apr 19). Take a guess.
The reason I comment is that I actually witnessed first hand the arrival of Gordon Brown (Brownian motion?) at Al Fresco Café on the seafront. I was with some friends on the beach and my friend Adam & I went to get some take away fish & chips for the family to eat from The Regency. (What? We’re in Brighton, that’s what everyone does right?) Whilst sitting outside in the sunshine, waiting for our order to be prepped, we witnessed what our colonial cousins might call a motorcade come zooming west along the seafront; police motorcycle outriders stopping traffic, three or four people carriers with blacked-outed windows and a shiny black Range Rover.
Out spilt a cluster of security personnel sporting trade mark grey pallor (maybe they’re chosen to blend in with Gordy), hangers on, press officers and assorted other coiffured types filling up the promenade outside Al Fresco. Then appeared the hulking, political titan himself and shambled into the café to meet assorted dignitaries and local bureaucrats including…Eddie Izzard. Odd. (As far as celebrity endorsement goes, I have to say, Eddie Izzard isn’t a bad one.)
We wandered back to the beach with our fish & chips, briefly stopped for a gawp at the political ‘great & good’…and then left them to it.
Didn’t witness first hand d’arrival of D’ave. I wonder if he has as much police traffic assistance and people with curly wires sprouting out of their ears? I doubt it as he is only the ‘Prince Regent’ at the moment. In fact on a recent Newsnight (I think?) piece on Cameron’s campaign, he took the covering film crew for a meal and beer at his local tapas restaurant in Nottinghill (my, the Tory’s war chest must be over flowing!). Not sure Brown could do that…or would do that…or that anyone would care to join him for paella and chorizo frito.
The reason I comment is that I actually witnessed first hand the arrival of Gordon Brown (Brownian motion?) at Al Fresco Café on the seafront. I was with some friends on the beach and my friend Adam & I went to get some take away fish & chips for the family to eat from The Regency. (What? We’re in Brighton, that’s what everyone does right?) Whilst sitting outside in the sunshine, waiting for our order to be prepped, we witnessed what our colonial cousins might call a motorcade come zooming west along the seafront; police motorcycle outriders stopping traffic, three or four people carriers with blacked-outed windows and a shiny black Range Rover.
Out spilt a cluster of security personnel sporting trade mark grey pallor (maybe they’re chosen to blend in with Gordy), hangers on, press officers and assorted other coiffured types filling up the promenade outside Al Fresco. Then appeared the hulking, political titan himself and shambled into the café to meet assorted dignitaries and local bureaucrats including…Eddie Izzard. Odd. (As far as celebrity endorsement goes, I have to say, Eddie Izzard isn’t a bad one.)
We wandered back to the beach with our fish & chips, briefly stopped for a gawp at the political ‘great & good’…and then left them to it.
Didn’t witness first hand d’arrival of D’ave. I wonder if he has as much police traffic assistance and people with curly wires sprouting out of their ears? I doubt it as he is only the ‘Prince Regent’ at the moment. In fact on a recent Newsnight (I think?) piece on Cameron’s campaign, he took the covering film crew for a meal and beer at his local tapas restaurant in Nottinghill (my, the Tory’s war chest must be over flowing!). Not sure Brown could do that…or would do that…or that anyone would care to join him for paella and chorizo frito.
Tuesday 20 April 2010
BNP supporters will be disappointed on polling day. Shame.
So I was in my local (I'll keep the name under wraps) having a pint this weekend and the conversation came round to politics. I know, I know, politics should be avoided in social scenes but it's hard at the moment with election fever sweeping Britain.
There are two characters at the bar who are regulars but I don't personally know them. Anyway, it was as if I'd ignited a firework and shoved it in their trousers/handbag respectively. There was some 'f'-ing and blinding and a proclamation that they were going to vote BNP. The bloke stormed off. I hadn't commented on his target for support, he was just in a tizz. And the woman sloped off shortly afterwards saying, "People misunderstand the BNP."
I don't think so. I understand there's no room in society for racism, therefore for that reason alone (regardless of the host of other reasons) the BNP deserve no support and will ultimately fail.
Anyway, what I didn't get a chance to tell them was that there is no Brighton Kemptown BNP candidate. The next 'closest' candidate is UKIP's James Chamberlain-Webb. Have a look. I'm not sure that he's the image of the crusader for 'white rights' that they might be after. Then again, they've got to find their way to the polling station to vote in the first place so I feel James isn't going to get a boost in support from any disgruntled would-be BNP voters.
[Kind of put me off the pub though.]
There are two characters at the bar who are regulars but I don't personally know them. Anyway, it was as if I'd ignited a firework and shoved it in their trousers/handbag respectively. There was some 'f'-ing and blinding and a proclamation that they were going to vote BNP. The bloke stormed off. I hadn't commented on his target for support, he was just in a tizz. And the woman sloped off shortly afterwards saying, "People misunderstand the BNP."
I don't think so. I understand there's no room in society for racism, therefore for that reason alone (regardless of the host of other reasons) the BNP deserve no support and will ultimately fail.
Anyway, what I didn't get a chance to tell them was that there is no Brighton Kemptown BNP candidate. The next 'closest' candidate is UKIP's James Chamberlain-Webb. Have a look. I'm not sure that he's the image of the crusader for 'white rights' that they might be after. Then again, they've got to find their way to the polling station to vote in the first place so I feel James isn't going to get a boost in support from any disgruntled would-be BNP voters.
[Kind of put me off the pub though.]
Where are the Kemptown candidates? - answer
Funnily enough, just after I posted the below I had a letter dropped through the door. No, not by a 'new' candidate introducing themselves to me, telling me how they're going to revolutionise the world (but in a touchy-feely, inclusive and local way) and politely asking for my support. It was from Simon Burgess...again.
So that makes At least five pamphlets or letters to me & my wife each. You can't knock his energy (although I don't think he delivered them all himself).
Anyway, he suggested the reason that we (i.e. my area of Kemptown) haven't heard from the Tories in leaflet/door stepping form is that they know St James, St George's & Black Rock are a lost cause and are concentrating on the wards further east where they have more grass roots support. The alterior motive being red-blooded supporters are lulled into a false sense of security over the lack of Tory visibility. I guess that represents good 'use of resource' but quite frankly I would like to be addressed directly my the person that might represent me in Westminster, whether I vote for them or not. I think it's basic manners and simply put - polite.
I have emailed Simon Kirby asking him to introduce himself and send me some literature. I got an automated response a few days ago since when I have heard nothing.
Then again, I've heard nothing from the LibDem candidate Juliet Williams (surely she should be ramping up her presence given the LibDem surge) or the Green Party candidate Ben Duncan (perhaps he's too busy canvassing in Brighton Pavilion next door trying to get Caroline Lucas elected).
I'd also quite like to hear from Dave Hill (Trade Union & Socialist Coalition) for the sole reason that I think his picture on Hustings.com is terrificly defiant and Canute-esque (which is probably apt).
Also his party (Trade Unionist & Socialist Coalition) has the acronym TUSC...which brings us back to the 'elephant in the room'.
[Actually thinking about it I did hear some loudspeakered political 'noise' the other day - couldn't make out what was being said or who was saying it but I gather from his blogsite that it was David Hill and his TUSC friends. I take it back - I have now heard from Simon Burgess (a lot) and heard a rather garbled David Hill.]
So that makes At least five pamphlets or letters to me & my wife each. You can't knock his energy (although I don't think he delivered them all himself).
Anyway, he suggested the reason that we (i.e. my area of Kemptown) haven't heard from the Tories in leaflet/door stepping form is that they know St James, St George's & Black Rock are a lost cause and are concentrating on the wards further east where they have more grass roots support. The alterior motive being red-blooded supporters are lulled into a false sense of security over the lack of Tory visibility. I guess that represents good 'use of resource' but quite frankly I would like to be addressed directly my the person that might represent me in Westminster, whether I vote for them or not. I think it's basic manners and simply put - polite.
I have emailed Simon Kirby asking him to introduce himself and send me some literature. I got an automated response a few days ago since when I have heard nothing.
Then again, I've heard nothing from the LibDem candidate Juliet Williams (surely she should be ramping up her presence given the LibDem surge) or the Green Party candidate Ben Duncan (perhaps he's too busy canvassing in Brighton Pavilion next door trying to get Caroline Lucas elected).
I'd also quite like to hear from Dave Hill (Trade Union & Socialist Coalition) for the sole reason that I think his picture on Hustings.com is terrificly defiant and Canute-esque (which is probably apt).
[Actually thinking about it I did hear some loudspeakered political 'noise' the other day - couldn't make out what was being said or who was saying it but I gather from his blogsite that it was David Hill and his TUSC friends. I take it back - I have now heard from Simon Burgess (a lot) and heard a rather garbled David Hill.]
Grayling's gay gaffe - what impact on Kemptown Tory vote?
From the UK Polling Report website - Kemptown Forum
Gabriella Coscia
I see this seat [Brighton Kemptown] remaining Labour.Why ?
Large gay population which the tories will be able to blame their shadow Home Secretary for the loss of this potential gain for offending gay people.
Sometimes votes from certain sections of society and certain communities matter. Labour will hold 500 to 1000 majority
Andy J
The gay population isn’t large enough to have that kind of effect.
Jack Spratticus [that's me by the way]
Gabriella Coscia
I see this seat [Brighton Kemptown] remaining Labour.Why ?
Large gay population which the tories will be able to blame their shadow Home Secretary for the loss of this potential gain for offending gay people.
Sometimes votes from certain sections of society and certain communities matter. Labour will hold 500 to 1000 majority
Andy J
The gay population isn’t large enough to have that kind of effect.
Jack Spratticus [that's me by the way]
Chris Grayling has certainly scuppered the gay & lesbian vote. Estimates put Brighton’s population at 20% gay & lesbian…Kemptown’s probably more…let’s say 28% to make the maths easier (although I think that’s an over estimation). To lose those that may have voted Tory…let’s say 25% of that 28% would represent a 7% swing away from Tory. Would that be made up by the rest of Kemptown constituency’s new found Tory support to get them the seat? Dunno.
Bear in mind that the Kemptown constituency spreads a long way from Kemptown into the Moulsecombe, Saltdean, Woodingdean, Peacehaven hinterland. Not that I subscribe to his point of view/comments but they may have gained the Tory party support elsewhere in the small minded, shaved head end of constituency…who knows?
Either way, Grayling made a pre-election gaff in a very old-school Tory way.
==========================================
Bear in mind that the Kemptown constituency spreads a long way from Kemptown into the Moulsecombe, Saltdean, Woodingdean, Peacehaven hinterland. Not that I subscribe to his point of view/comments but they may have gained the Tory party support elsewhere in the small minded, shaved head end of constituency…who knows?
Either way, Grayling made a pre-election gaff in a very old-school Tory way.
==========================================
The Elephant in the Room
Is it just me or has the phrase 'elephant int he room' become THE phrase of the election campaign 2010? It has spread like a virus through the media. Generally referred to by the LibDems as the avoidance by Labour & Conservatives of the deficit issue it has also been used to describe avoidance (by any party) of plain talking on immigration, the EU, public sector jobs cuts and even lack of recycling.
So, if all the parties are accusing the other parties of avoiding the 'big issues'...what is it they are waffling on about generally?
And more importantly just how many elephants are there in the room? Surely the idea is that there should only ever be one...the one that's being avoided. If there's a whole herd of elephants surely it weakens the phrase not to mention making it all a bit crowded...and smelling of elephants!So far I haven't spotted any elephants in Kemptown...or have I?
OK, first post...better than The Last Post
So let's get this one out of the way. If you want to know what this blog is all about, then why not do yourself a favour and click the 'What's it all about' link above. That might help.
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(See here for the Burgess leaflet booboo.)
If this is a Conservative target seat (and the LibDems want to capitalise on their recent rise in stock), where are the other candidates’ literature, pamphlets, intros & explanations?
Maybe my house has been black-listed or every other party has written off east Kemptown/Black Rock…or something…but to rest on the laurels of a national swing away from Labour without addressing your potential constituents directly smacks of complacency. That charge clearly can’t be levelled at Simon Burgess who is looking to reassure floating voters in constituencies in London & The North!