BREAKING NEWS in the Commissioner of Crime Election

Ian Chisnall, Independent candidate in the upcoming Sussex Police & Crime Commissioner election, apparently has no eyes!

Sadly the rather churchy candidate just has little black slits. How does he drive that boat then?

[Someone tell Ian that a promo shot for a psuedo political position should include eyes...that way we can see into your soul and check out just how black it is.]

East Brighton Exit Poll Results

So as we march through midday on the most important election day...in 2012...in east Brighton...on October 18 I have undertaken a very scientific and highly representative exit poll.

The survey was taken from a broad section of the electorate close to the polling station at TS Nautilus, 39A Chesham Road BN2.

Very interesting results.

Wha Hey! Polling Day

Hello there! Well it is upon us. The day to flex your voting muscle, to undertake your right as a member of democratic society, to make the choice for who you want to serve you...

...that's right, do you get your morning flat white from Ground Coffee House or The Kemptown Trading Post & Coffee Shop?

Councillor Mitchell moon bothering..again

Campaigning in East Brighton reaches 'silly':

Sarah Palin annoying Kingfisher Court residents
dressed as medieval knight

Councillor Mitchell moon bothering...again

Can any of that be true? No, probably not.

All Quiet On The Eastern (Brighton) Front

I've been braced for the political storm battering East Brighton in the build up to the forthcoming local by-election...but it's all gone a bit quiet.

So, in lieu of anything too worthwhile to say myself, here's a round up from the nitty-net of the news and views regards this momentous event:

Review and pics of East Brighton by-election candidates' campaign leaflets

A blog post by Scrapper Duncan on why the by-election might be closer than you think and TUSC campaigning in the wrong ward.

Another blog post by Scrapper Duncan on electioneering in East Brighton.

Blog post by BrightonPoliticsBlog on by-election candidates. Not as good as mine though, obviously.

Total Politics article on getting young folk involved in politics - relevant given our brace of prospective 'yoof' councillors: Joe Miller (18) - Con, and Dominik Sokalski (20) - LibDem

...errr...that'll do.

And just to liven things up (as this has been rather dull, frankly), here's a picture of the mighty fine Smoky Jo Burger from The Troll's Pantry chuck wagon in the Wood Store car park, Circus Street, Brighton.

Smoky Joe - telling politics to burger off

An Apology Is Due It Seems

A timely picture from Gatwick Airport station:

Some might use a term other than 'inconvenience'.

LATEST: East Brighton Opinion Poll Results

Clip-board waving representatives of Ipsos MORI, ComRes and YouGov have been noticeably absent from the streets of East Brighton. Perplexing given the incredibly influential council by-election taking place in 10 days' time.

But, don't panic that you don't have a handle on the political mood of East Brighton - let The Whale cast a statistical light where there is polling darkness.

It turns out that designing and undertaking a political opinion poll is a lengthy and complicated business, and far too much hassle for a Sunday afternoon. Instead, I just logged the political posters in my neighbours' windows when I strolled to the Co-Op. Here are the results:


Labour:

 TOTAL = 9


Greens:



















TOTAL = 4 (although I'm tempted to award a bonus point for the hand made sign!)

Conservatives = 0
LibDems = 0
UKIP = 0
TUSC = 0

Here's a pretty picture to demonstrate the results in an eye-pleasing way:

So there we have it. It's a pretty straightforward win by Labour over the Greens two to one with the other parties receiving no votes whatsoever. You heard it here first folks!


[PS - this might be very marginally more statistically significant than my political Tomatometer...maybe?]

Lib-Dem Candidate Debunks Student Stereotype

Dominik Sokalski, the Sussex University student who is running as the Lib-Dem candidate for the upcoming East Brighton local by-election, has posted a couple of Tweets lately in a bid to distance himself from that tired old student stereotype.

Tweets

       Dominik Sokalski ‏@DominikSokalski10h

     

       About to burst with curry after Tobys 'surprise' dinner. Hope Toby enjoys Australia!

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•  Reply 
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      Dominik Sokalski ‏@DominikSokalski22h

   

      Just got me self a glastonbury ticket. Woo #glasto2013

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•       Reply 
•  Retweet 
•  Favorite

Joe Miller Twitter confusion

I was looking for East Brighton Conservative candidate Joe Miller on Twitter, mainly because the Twitter address he's got on his Facebook campaign page (@joeymick94) doesn't exist.

Quick search and I thought I'd found him. Then I realised this probably wasn't the Joe Miller I was looking for:

Tweets

28 Jul 09      Joe Miller ‏@joemiller94

      is a dick.

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•         Reply 
•  Retweet 
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3 May 09    Joe Miller ‏@joemiller94

    reallii bored, waitin for my birthday tomorrow (Y) x

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•  Reply 
•  Retweet 
•  Favorite

For the record, the correct Twitter address for the Conservative candidate for East Brighton by-election, Joe Miller is: @MillerJoe94

The Election Result Tomatometer

So, it's the final harvest festival at the Spratticus small holding (i.e. pots of veg plants on the deck). As always with the last crop of tomatoes, not all have ripened, especially given the miserable weather lately.

Last crop of toms

And then it struck me - is this actually an omen to the upcoming East Brighton by-election results? Can reading the tomatoes act as an horticultural and more colourful equivalent of reading tea- leaves? Are the fruit of these wind and rain battered plants acting as an election 'Tomatometer' ™ ?

The 'count'

Above is a snap of the crop and without being too numerical, it looks to me like that the Green toms have completely over powered the Red and Yellow toms (and I was being a little generous on giving the benefit of the doubt - classifying anything that looked off-green or orange as yellow).

Whether that prediction will stand, we shall have to wait and see, but you heard it here first folks. And one thing's for sure - there are no Blue tomatoes!

(And Peter Snow - hands off, this idea's mine! Oh, and I guess it's green tomato chutney time.)

East Brighton By-Election Movers & Shakers

So, there's a local by-election to take place in East Brighton on 18 Oct 2012 to replace Labour councillor Craig Turton who has stepped down due to health reasons (The Whale wishes him well and a speedy return to full health).

So who are the movers and shakers in the running for what inevitably will be the most important by-election ever...in East Brighton...in the middle of October...in 2012? (Twitter, Blog or Web links provided where I could find them. Oh and don't ask me why some have ages and others don't, that's just the way they were announced.)

• Sabiha Choudhury, of Blenheim Place, Brighton, who is standing for UKIP

We don't learn a lot politically from Sabiha's Twitter feed or (work) website - she's a freelance copywriter, she likes writing (so that's handy), she seems to be distressed by Mail Online readers' comments, which I would say is a bad starting point for a UKIP candidate...and that's about all. In fact, unless all her political pearls are being polished somewhere else on the Nitty-Net, she doesn't mention a thing about running in the up-coming by-election.

In the picture, I'm not sure what that blob on the right hand side is that's looming into shot. A Photoshop blurred image of Nigel Farage? I know I wouldn't want to be seen in the same room as him.

Tipster: chances zip to nil but 15 seconds of fame might get her some work.

• Carlie Goldsmith, 35, of North Place, Brighton, who is standing for the Greens

Unlike Sabiha, Carlie does Tweet politics. Quite a lot of politics.

She basically ticks all the boxes - grew up in Whitehawk, lectures at Kingston Uni in Criminology (community, youth and social inequalities), which could come in very handy in East Brighton.

In fact she'd be a perfect candidate for Hanover & Elm Grove were the by-election there, especially if she handed out small packets of home made muesli as she did her doorstep campaigning. But this is the badlands of East Brighton, not quite so in touch with their green tea and biodegradable bin bags.

Tipster: best of the rest and worth a punt although going is soft after local Green Party council in-fighting.

• Joe Miller, 18, of Lewes Road, Brighton, who is standing for the Conservatives

Yup, that 18 above isn't a street address, it is actually Joe Miller's age. Now I'm not one to be ageist, being incredibly youthful myself...but...is this the best that the Conservatives could do...really? A candidate that has never voted in an election before - national or local, that until recently would have needed permission to marry and who wears Tweed by a Whitehawk FC sign. I know William Pitt the Younger hit the top spot at 24, but that was back in the eighteenth century when average life expectancy was 39 years old!

Nope this smacks to me of fielding a 'warm body'. I may be wrong and Joe might storm in on an unexpected groundswell of pro-Tory support and grandmothers just thinking he's a 'Very nice young man'...and after all, as Oscar Wilde said, '...the young are always willing to give to those who are older than themselves the full benefits of their inexperience'...but I doubt he'll pull it off.

Now apparently, this was the photo (the one with the moustache and cryptic  sandwich board) that appeared on Twitter when Joe announced he had won the Conservative candidacy - yes Conservative, not the Monster Raving Loony Party! I really have nothing more to add regards that snap.

I also notice he has some Facebook friend called 'Samuel Giles Larson Disney' - now that's not going to help you in the current political climate, is it...unless you're running for the Monster Raving Loony Party.

Oh, and he needs to update his Twitter address on the Facebook page as it is incorrect. And I thought it was 'the kids' that were down with the tech? 

Tipster: despite the omens of an 18 year old fighting an election on the 18th, this yearling will be lucky to make it round the course.

• Jon Redford, of Wolverstone Drive, Hollingdean, who is standing for Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts (TUSC)

There he is - Jon Redford - he's a smiley fella isn't he.

So enough about the positive...I find the TUSC campaign literature pretty tough going, sort of like reading the communist manifesto re-written by Ayn Rand. Still full marks for trying.

There is a Twitter account linked from the Brighton TUSC blog, but it doesn't seem to have been updated since May.

Tipster: Might receive backing from those confused souls who mistake him for Robert Redford, otherwise a distant last.

• Dominik Sokalski, 20, of Coombe Terrace, Brighton, who is standing for the Liberal Democrats

In keeping with the LiberalCon coalition, the Lib Dems have agreed to also field a very young candidate - Dominik Sokalski. He's a Sussex Uni first-year undergraduate studying economics. Perhaps it's the LibDem way of saying - 'You see, not all students despise us.' But beware, he could be part of a student sleeper cell!

Will the Liberal Dem conference in Brighton have raised his profile? Probably not as no-one seemed to notice or give a fig.

Brian Stone, chairman of the Brighton and Hove Liberal Democrats, said:  “Dominik will show the people of Brighton East what a real councillor looks like.”

Yes I am sure he will Brian, as he points to the winner and says: "Look there's a real councillor."

Tipster:  High hopes from the stable in 2010 but has produced lame runners at bigger events; expect to be booed all the way to the line.

• Chaun Wilson, of Downland Road, Woodingdean, who is standing for Labour

Labour's candidate, Chaun Wilson, has to be the front runner mainly as Craig Turton the former councillor was Labour and had a majority of 800 last time round (I think...not sure where that figure came from, I might have just made it up...actually just checked - c.650 over next rival, Green Party).

But this isn't a one horse race, still plenty of time for Labour to trip up and give ground to their rivals.

And great gnashers, no? But you know what they say - never look a gift horse in the mouth.

In fact Ed Milliband has some whacking chompers too. Maybe it's a prerequisite of getting on in the Labour Party.

Tipster: Bookies will will be crying into their crumpled ballot papers if this favourite romps home...as expected.

The Whale's back for 2012

Hello there! Yeah, yeah, yeah, I know, things have been pretty quiet on The Whale In My Tea Cup lately (miss us?)...but WE'RE BACK. The clarion call of the party conference season, the turmoil of UK national and local politics, upcoming local by election and the huge demand from The Whale's loyal following means it's time to start throwing pebbles into the pond of local Brighton politics...once again.

And on a housekeeping note, we've spruced up the The Whale Blogspot with a fresh new look and some nifty ways of spreading the love on all those wonderful social media platforms that I don't really understand but am assured by people in severe and expensive specs are really important. We've tried to keep the colour scheme party-neutral...but it is a little green - it was either that or brown!

Let's Whale!

Kemptown election odds - latest

Sorry, been a bit quiet on here lately. Real life getting in the way of virtual politics. Obviously lots going on nationally as I'm sure you're aware. Locally within Kemptown...well the Paddy Power Brighton Kemptown election odds have changed a little perhaps reflecting the national scene:

Conservatives = 1/7 (lengthened a fraction from 1/8 although still odds on favourites)
Labour =             4/1 (unchanged)
LibDems =        40/1 (shortened from 66/1...but hardly turned on their head!)
Greens =           50/1 (again shortned a touch from 66/1 but still the outsiders)

Read it as you will.

Kemtpown election odds odds odds

With all the kerfuffle about skewed and politcally biased polls, perhaps the best place to get a representative view of the likely outcome in Kemptown...is the bookies...the people who have a financial interest in getting it right!

Paddy Power odds remain unchanged for Brighton Kemptown election results:

Conservative = 1/8
Labour          = 4/1
LibDem         = 66/1
Green           = 66/1

According to the Electoral Calculus website (posh name for a website probably run by a second year politics student at Lancaster University with a Casio MS-8TV calculator) the odds according to the polls are:

Conservative = 2/1
Labour          = 3/1
LibDem         = 8/1
Other            =166/1

So, as far as I understand gambling, the LibDems represent good value if you fancy a bet...not that I'm saying they're going to win, they're just undervalued by a factor of eight by the bookies.

Campaign 'activity' map - east Kemptown

Inspired by The Argus' Brighton Pavilion Canvassing Map, I have decided to do my own for east Kemptown (a non-official area in the east of...well...Kemptown that I have made up myself).

Unfortunately due to the lack of 'activity' other than Dave Hill (TUSC) on the back of a transit blasting out his political song through a mega phone, I have had to include the leaflets I have received at home.

To summarise:
Labour = some leaflets
Greens = 1 leaflet
Conservatives = 1 leaflet
TUSC = megaphone broadcast on Marine Parade

I think the map is editable by the public so feel free to add to it with an appropriate coloured flag.




View Political 'activity' in east Kemptwon in a larger map

UKIP's Webber gaffe - the story behind the story

It's an election, the poltical reporting reaches fever pitch as newspapers generate column feet of coverage and candidates fight tooth and nail for their lark's song to rise above the twittering of starlings.

So we can always expect some great gaffes by our Westminster wannabes. Our own Brighton Kemptown UKIP candidate James Chamberlain-Webber managed to put his foot in it this week by comparing our train service to travelling on Nazi 'cattle trucks' to concentration camps. Hmmm.

Dr James Chamberlain-Webber (UKIP PPC for Brighton Kemptown)

But things are not always as they appear at face value of course. Here's a potential scenario that could have led to Webber's 'blunder' - the story behind the story:


[Wednesday night and the phone rings in the Chamberlain-Webber household.]

Dr Chamberlain-Webber: Hello?
Nigel Farage (UKIP Leader): Ah, Webber...Nigel Farage here. Look, I'm very disappointed by the lack of momentum in your campaign so far. I want you to up the ante and try and knock coverage of tomorrow's leaders' debate off the front pages.
DR C-W: Oh, OK. What do you have in mind?
NF: Well, something controversial, something offensive, something that really sheds some light on who we are and sets your camapign alight.
Dr C-W: Oh, right. What about something crass and ill-thought-out about the gay community...I am standing in Brighton Kemptown after all?
NF: No, no, no, the Conservatives have got there first...Grayling with the B&B fiasco and now Julian Lewis has stolen our thunder with his comment about how being young and gay is as dangerous as going to war. Pity, as that would have been perfect.
Dr C-W: I could say that it's our policy to cosy up to the extreme right wing in Europe.
NF: Nope. Conservatives again. Anway...we ARE the extreme right wing in Europe!
Dr C-W: What about if I get confused and say "Here I am in Arundel & South Downs" when I'm actually in Brighton Kemptown?
NF: Old hat! Liam Fox in Edinburgh South.
Dr C-W: I could get on Twitter and say that Simon Burgess is a tw*t and Juliet Williams is a f*cking idiot.
NF: Slagging off candidates has already been done by Labour - Stuart MacLennan in Moray. Hang on just a minute...I think I've got it!!!

[Obviously the above is completely ficticious and in no way explains why Webber said what he said.]

E-poking Simon Kirby with an e-stick

After the high of my letter from Simon Burgess (Lab), I felt the inevitable low - the feeling I had been short-changed a bit by Simon Kirby (Con) and his 'HELLO' email. It wasn't really cutting it for me.

So I decided to give him an e-poke with an e-stick to try and get hold of some of his campaign literature.

===============================
Thanks Simon

I forgot to tell you where I live - [Address withheld to prevent being mobbed by 'The Whale' fans]

I appreciate you're very busy but can you let me know when you/your team plan to drop a campaign leaflet off or perhaps you could pop something in the post explaining your policies with regards the Brighton Kemptown constituency.

All the best - Mr Spratticus

On 21 April 2010 16:58, Kemptown Conservatives <brighton@tory.org> wrote:

Dear Mr Spratticus

Thanks for getting in touch.  We have been very busy delivering across the constituency and if we have missed you I must apologise.  I will make sure that we do not miss you again.  Thank you and Kind Regards

Simon Kirby

Conservative Parliamentary Candidate

Brighton Kemptown

Simon Burgess - he can read my thoughts...and then reply!

Not only has Simon Burgess (Lab) out-leafleted our household by a scale of 422:1 (the 'one' was Ben Duncan - Green Party) but I have just had a personal letter from him...with my name spelt correctly an' everythin'.

I returned one of his flyers recently that had a survey on the back asking what my biggest concerns and issues were both locally and nationally. I said climate change (more global than local) and cycling (more national & local than global...although global promotion wouldn't hurt). I know, there are other things to worry about but I thought those a good starting point. The letter I have just received (OK, not technically signed by him, it's an image of his signature, but hey) thanks me for returning the survey and then highlights his stance on environmental issues and cycling.

OK, I'm not so naive as to think that he's dictating this letter to his PA as he's gripping and grinning constituents and sharing a Vimto with Eddie Izzard, I'm sure it's his back room staff, but I'm still impressed.

I'm afraid it rather eclipses Juliet Williams' (LibDem) email (written by Paul Chandler) and Simon Kirby's (Con) (now almost famous) 'HELLO' email.

Right, I'm just going to check outside to see if Simon Burgess is loitering in the street in a trilby hat and false beard taking pictures of our house.

The 'funny' bits of the leaders' debate

[...to counter the previous far too serious post]

OK funny might be 'pushing the envelope' as our US cousins (who work in a stationery factory) might say. But at least these are the bits that made me smile:

The cut-away to yawning man:
Gordy wittering on about something and the camera cuts to the audience (for reaction?) and lands on a man stifling a giant yawn. Sky coverage - who'd a thought it, tut tut!

The 'Dear Liza' immigration debate :
Gordon to Nick: You'd offer an amnesty to 900,000 illegal immigrants, dear Liza dear Liza
Nick to Gordon: You have to be realistically. What would you do dear Henry dear Henry?
Gordon to Nick: I'd deport them dear Liza dear Liza
Nick to Gordon: You can't deport 900,000 people - you don't know where they live, dear Henry dear Henry!
(Gordon to self in mumble: Perhaps I can find them on 192.com or Linked-In or something?)

The great neanderthal sex diagnosis:
Gordon to audience member: "Woman. You are one of them!"

Unfortunate choice of words prize:
1st - Afghanistan: Dave was 'blown away' by a soldier's comments.
2nd - Climate change: Gordon has hardly used a plane during this campaign. (Errr...nor has the entire nation!)

Pot calling deep space black:
Gordon to Nick: Get real!
[From the most unreal, wooden, empathetically devoid character in politics since John Major.]

Leaders' debate and the impact on Brighton Kemptown

So, what's the impact of the leaders' debates on the political landscape of Brighton Kemptown (BK)? Well, as a marginal constituency, seemingly quite a lot. For those BK constituents that are politically active and aware of local political nuances (yes that's you! After all, you're reading the virtual Magnum Opus on Brighton Kemptown politics) it is probably just entertainment but won't effect your voting choice.

To those vast majority of BK constituents, particularly those in the eastern hinterlands who watched the latest debate, slippered feet up, gin & tonic in hand whilst munching through a box of dates, it may well have a big impact. They voted Labour in '97 for a change, '01 because things were fine and maybe switched to Tory in '05 or were thinking about switching to Tory in this election...after all, what is the alternative?

Well, Nick Clegg held his own last night...OK, maybe not as dramatic as last week's debate, but he's up there on a level platform with the Gordy & Dave double act and has proven himslef to be a viable alternative.

As I have previously covered on this blog in fantastically academically rigourous detail (hmmm?), a swing to the LibDems in BK strips more potential Conservative votes than it does Labour.

So, on that premise, the higher the LibDems' stock soars, the more Conservative support deflates...and the more chance there is of Labour retaining the seat. It may not be a big enough groundswell to prevent a Tory victory in BK, but currently on Paddy Power (no unsavoury vested interest I hasten to add), you can get odds of 4/1 on a Labour victory in BK. Even if it's not worthy of your vote, it might be worth a punt.